09
Jun
11

still on track….

Robert Shrum: Forget the noisy declarations about lousy economic news sinking Obama’s re-election. The president is still on track for a second term.

….what will endure after this remarkable week is the emergence of a consensus that Barack Obama could lose next year… First, the unemployment numbers … Second, The Times headlined an analysis, widely repeated, that no incumbent president since FDR has won a second term when unemployment was above 7.2 percent … Third, in the latest Washington Post/ABC poll … nearly 60 percent of people offer a negative verdict on Obama’s stewardship of the economy. Then the clincher: While he defeats most Republicans by a margin of 10 to 17 points, the president is now tied with Mitt Romney….

…..much of the new mood is too instant, too superficial, and too casually ahistorical… …As The Times’ Nate Silver wrote in gently questioning his own paper’s deterministic metric, there is a “maddeningly inexact relationship between unemployment and re-election.”

….the relevant signs suggest that Barack Obama is in a more advantageous position than Ronald Reagan was. In Gallup’s June 1983 numbers, Reagan’s approval was 43 percent; in late May and early June, Obama was five to eight points higher. And of the two presidents in the last four decades who had the highest approval ratings this far out from the election, the first Bush was trounced and the second Bush barely squeaked by. The presidents with middling ratings – Nixon, Reagan, and Clinton – ultimately triumphed; Dole was ahead of Clinton in June of 1995.

…flat earth economics won’t hold with the public if Republicans hold to their present resolve and convert the attractive abstraction of spending cuts into the grim reality of shredding Medicare. There’s the leverage for the president if the GOP refuses to compromise on a reasonable basis – which is probably a remote possibility at best.

…In the week Weiner was roasted, the conventional wisdom included that the 2012 election is not yet baked. But I suspect that by then the economy will finally be seen as moving in the right direction – or that sooner than that, Republican efforts to trash the recovery and repeal the New Deal will become all too transparent and repellant. Either outcome leads to Obama’s second term.

Full article here

Thank you Ladyhawke


24 Responses to “still on track….”


  1. 1 bjw2
    June 9, 2011 at 11:43 am

    Don’t feed the press!

    • 2 SUE DUVALL SMITH
      June 9, 2011 at 11:57 am

      CAN YOU IMAGINE WHERE SARAH PALIN WOULD BE TODAY IF ABSOLUTELY NOONE PAID ATTENTION TO HER!??????!!!!!!!!!! LESSONS LEARNED HERE!

  2. 3 sherijr
    June 9, 2011 at 11:44 am

    Yeah I’m just not worried. First of all- the economy HAS been recovering.. it has come far from the brink of destruction it was facing when this President took over in January 2009.. just a little over 2 years ago. November 2012 is 16 months from now.. and as we all have learned, a hell of a LOT can happen in that period of time.

    What I would like to see more of us do is to go after the Republicans in Congress and demand a JOBS bill, we need to get on that soapbox and stick with it- everytime they yak about Medicare/ about cuts – we need to ask them Where Are The JOBS Republicans??? What have YOU done for us lately?? Because we KNOW what President Obama has been doing for us. So no matter how the media plays their shenanigans of ‘predicting’ the future on behalf of inept lazy republicans as the ‘winners’ of the 2012 elections.. we have REALITY on our side.. the reality of all that has been done in two years and what more will be accomplished in the next year… by President Obama.

    • 4 bjw2
      June 9, 2011 at 11:48 am

      I’m at the point where I’m taking FLOTUS advice. I’ve started turning off the tv and going outside in my garden or riding my bike.
      I come here and visits other sites such as this one and I tell it works well on the blood pressure.

      • 5 sherijr
        June 9, 2011 at 12:08 pm

        Spot on bj, right now we need to be getting our energy built up, thicken our skins and prepare for battle.. nurture our lives.. because the game will be on before too long and we will need to have our stamina and our mental health on an even keel. For those of us who knock on doors and make phone calls (hopefully most of us) – we will have needed this time to tune out the noise and just to soothe ourselves for the real fights down the road. I spent several hours weeding over the weekend- we’ve had terrible weather here in ND- cold and wet and little sun. But that one day over the weekend really helped me get outside of my own concerns and just sort of revel in sanity of dirt and worms and flower beds :)

        • 6 theo67
          June 9, 2011 at 6:48 pm

          Yes, I plan to take the summer off and ignore the media and politics. I’m sure they will come up with some new crisis to cry over, and we’ll soon be in battle mode. I’m going to try and recharge during summer.

      • 7 anniebella
        June 9, 2011 at 12:41 pm

        bjw2, I come here when I want information. I’m sick of the media. When bin Laden were killed all the media talked about was is Obama unbeatable, now all they talk about is everybody can beat him. All the media is talking the same ting. But we will see what happens. I still believe in my President. And I’m going to do whatever I can to help him and Joe Biden win in2012. Beside I want to see what he and Michelle will dance to January 2013.

        • 8 Lovepolitics2008
          June 9, 2011 at 1:34 pm

          Good point anniebella to point out how inconsistent the media is. It has become a circus. Plalin and simple.

  3. 9 PoliticalJunkessa
    June 9, 2011 at 11:49 am

    Obama 2012, Yeah Baby :P !!!

    I have no doubts about his re-election, but what I want more than anything is a Congress to work with. We need to kick these disgusting, inept, tax cut cultist, teabaggers out of office before they take us completely under. I am looking forward to that part of the campaign. THESE MOFOS HAVE GOT TO GO!!!

    • 10 bjw2
      June 9, 2011 at 11:50 am

      2 X iffinity!

    • 11 sherijr
      June 9, 2011 at 12:03 pm

      Ohh I am so there with you PJ.. oohRahh! ;)

    • 12 Lovepolitics2008
      June 9, 2011 at 1:40 pm

      Agreed 100%. It’s time for the american people to realize that the “checks and balances” thing doesn’t work so well when repubicans are in the minority. They don’t understand the concept of constructive opposition.

  4. 13 SUE DUVALL SMITH
    June 9, 2011 at 11:56 am

    THE AMERICAN PEOPLE ARE CERTAINLY LEARNING SOME TOUGH LESSONS SINCE THEY ‘VOTED AGAINST THEMSELVES’ IN THE MIDTERMS! OUR ‘FANTASTIC’ PRESIDENT REMAINS ON THE ‘HIGH ROAD’ AND HE’S GOING TO RUN OVER ALL OPF THEM IN 2012!!!!!! YEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH….SOMEBODY PASS THE FRONTEND LOADER…OBAMA’S COMIN!!!!!!!

  5. 14 bjw2
    June 9, 2011 at 12:01 pm

    I love Bob Shrum, his words are always soothing.

    This is what our fourth estate has focussed on over the past two months.

    **Donald Trump
    **POTUS Long form Birth certificate
    **Weinergate
    **Palin will she/won’t she run.

    Our press has now become a reality show.

  6. 17 lisalovesobama
    June 9, 2011 at 12:02 pm

    I’ve stopped watching any “news” programing before Lawrence’s show at 8. Lately my Hardball watching has been relatively hit or miss. If I flip the channel on and he’s not doomsday-ing PBO in terms of the economy and talking about polls that put Romnitwit ahead of PBO, then I watch. If not I switch to Disney or TBS. At more than a year out to the election, I don’t want to hear any MSM meme about the sky falling and other requisite BS. I don’t want to hear about the idiotic low-lifes who think they are (pardon the non-gender neutral language) man enough to beat PBO. I think I’m gonna do like PBO and roll with the punches, keep on keeping on till it’s time to take out the garbage. And since PBO can’t say it, to all his repug competition: EAT MY SHORTS!!!!

    • 18 COS
      June 9, 2011 at 2:15 pm

      Lisalove I am doing the same. I follow this blog, BWD, CR and others for good links and information. I hate the manufactured negativy about PBO. When his polls are high, they can’t stand it and now they are pushing this doom and gloom economy meme. Bob shrum has credibility and I like reading his articles.

  7. 20 SUE DUVALL SMITH
    June 9, 2011 at 12:20 pm

    I HAVE TO WATCH THE NEWS BECAUSE I WANT TO KNOW WHAT THEY ARE SAYING…IT IS IMPORTANT TO BE INFORMED IN ORDER TO RETALIATE WHEN ASKED QUESTIONS. PERSONALLY…I LOVE THIS PRESIDENT WITH A PASSION…HE IS PERFECT FOR AMERICA…AND NO…I DON’T WORRY ABOUT HIM BECAUSE HE IS MORE INTELLIGENT AND CERTAINLY MORE MATURE AND GRACEFUL THAN HIS CHALLENGERS. IF YOU START TO BELIEVE ANY OF THE TRASH THE MEDIA AND REPUBLICANS ARE DUMPING ON THE PUBLIC…IT WILL MAKE YOU SICK. DON’T LET YOUR NERVES GET CAUGHT UP IN THIS PLETHORA OF ‘POMP AND CIRCUMSTANCE!’ STAND WITH YOUR PRESIDENT AND BTW…I SEND HE AND MICHELLE ENCOURAGEMENT CARDS OFTEN…DO THE SAME. IT MEANS ALOT TO THEM. LAST MONTH…I SENT THE PREZ. A TIE AND MICHELLE A BRACELET. THEY ARE LOVED!

  8. 21 Betty's Girl
    June 9, 2011 at 12:24 pm

    You would think the Unions and other groups especially NAACP and the CBC (since unemployment is highest amongst AA) would be leading marches to confront Congress but they are too busy pouting and attacking the President.

    • 22 PoliticalJunkessa
      June 9, 2011 at 12:34 pm

      Exactly. I always beat that drum: Where is the NAACP?!?!? Where is the CBC (made up of congressional “lifers”)?!?!?! For that matter, where are the Black Churches?!?!?!

      • 23 Betty's Girl
        June 9, 2011 at 12:48 pm

        “Congressional Lifers” …you got that so right! I have to use that one. They haven’t had an original idea in thirty years. I find them to be useless. They should all be primaried.

  9. 24 HZ
    June 9, 2011 at 1:58 pm

    Good Morning Chipstiks and friend,
    The article is great. Robert always has a good perpective on the noise. I am going to continue to believe in the man who gets things done inspite of the “out of tune” noise all around him. Yes, I am finding things to help me keep a calm mind when possible. I have been using some time to write to my senators on issues in our state. I will come to my wonderful home here to speak with inform people and get my inspiration for the day after my devotionals. We will win this in 2012. Just keep this in mind. We worked the 2008, and he was going a mess, but look what he has done. This is a long game. I know he must be so hurt that the jobs are not coming as many want them, but I admire his figt to try to inform us that some of those jobs will not come back, but he is fighting to focus our minds on rethinking about the type of jobs that we need to focus on now. I think re-training is the key word. But I also cry everyday to God to our President wisdom in helping those families, college students, and seniors who still do not have jobs, food on the table, and not the proper insurance. I hope we will collectively pray for this to happen. That is very difficult when he has all of the people blocking him on every move. But we did not elect a lazy, incompete man to be in that Oval Office. We will be fine. Think big, pray big, ask God for big things, and trust in your prayers. Then do whatever we can to work as hard as he is working for us. We get tired, angry, just plain mad, BUT we are bigger thatn those small minded ones who jut will not catch onto the vision and are willing to work with our POTUS. But We’ve Got This!


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