20
Jun
11

when a prediction isn’t a prediction

Greg Sargent (Washington Post): Under heavy pressure from Democrats and some reporters, McKinsey and Company has finally released the methdology of its study finding that many businesses are likely to drop insurance for employees as a result of the Affordable Care Act.

…..what’s immediately of interest is that in its statement, McKinsey repeatedly concedes that the study should not be seen as a predictor of future behavior. While McKinsey says it stands by the study’s methodology, the statement repeatedly stresses its lack of predictive value. This seems like a way of dealing with the fact that many other studies – unlike McKinsey – found that there would be minimal impact on employer-sponsored insurance.

….people might have thought the study was intended to be predictive because its initial headline was:

‘How US health care reform will affect employee benefits’

….I wonder how many of the news orgs that covered this study as a prediction will now cover the concession that it wasn’t intended to be a prediction.

More here

More from the White House and Steve Benen


56 Responses to “when a prediction isn’t a prediction”


  1. June 20, 2011 at 7:52 pm

    The msm will not cover this concession, bc democrats do not push the issue to the news organizations. Unfortunately, it seems, republicans see the msm as there friend and feed them with daily bullshit.
    However, people like dws will hopefully turn this lack of messaging, around!

    • 2 COS
      June 20, 2011 at 8:33 pm

      Jake Tapper was the first to mention this at one of the pressers. Let’s see if he will mention this finding.

  2. 3 Me4obama
    June 20, 2011 at 8:01 pm

    Keith has started, Libya bashing has started, am still cool tempered.

  3. 5 Doris
    June 20, 2011 at 8:02 pm

    Axe on Larry O!

    • 6 Me4obama
      June 20, 2011 at 8:04 pm

      Update me on what Ax is saying Doris.

    • 8 dotster
      June 20, 2011 at 8:17 pm

      O’Donnell is solid Obama bashing so far tonight. Showed clips from Nutroots Nation with white and black participants expressing how disappointed they were with Obama, along with various and sundry other criticisms. They want him to be a bully! was one of the more “brilliant” observances. (?) Now with Axelrod, he’s showing how the Obama approval at nutroots has dropped over the years, with no truthtelling about the mindset of those still inclined to attend. With all the Obama bashing on the more notorious sites, I would guess real Obama supporters have dropped away from that event in droves and thus the lower level of support, which is still 80%.

      • 9 Doris
        June 20, 2011 at 8:21 pm

        thanks dotster. Do you have the last part? I’m still watching, so can’t rewind just yet!

      • 10 lisalovesobama
        June 20, 2011 at 8:37 pm

        Lawrence can be douche in his exuberance to show that he’s not too partisan. At the end of the day, that tool will be voting Obama. Plus he solidly believes that PBO privately believes in marriage equality, but is curbing his tongue, like any smart politician would, until he wins a second term. It’s been noted that in the 1990s PBO believed in marriage equality, probably over the years he’s struggled with those beliefs, his and the venus fly trap that is politics. PBO says he’s evolving, I think PBO is a good man who understands what love is, that love has no limits or bounds in terms of gender or color. I think if PBO could wave a magic wand, then everyone would have the right to love whomever they happen to fall in love with and show that love in whatever ways they wanted like marriage. The problem is that the PL fails to understand that there is no magic wand. They want a dictator when he is wearing their color (blue/ Democrat), but when they get a dictator who is altogether of a different stripe (red/ Repug), they gripe about democracy and the constitution and due process and NOT circumventing the law. The PL are idiot losers who have NO credibility. I like what Axe basically said about Nutroots: “at the end of the day they will have a choice and they will make the right one.” Translation: tough titties, if only 80% of them approve of him, they have no other choice, it’s PBO or a Repug. Idiots

      • 11 hopefruit2
        June 20, 2011 at 8:37 pm

        How much did Hamschmuck pay these “disappointed” NUTROOTS Master of Fine Lies employees to come on and perform their “ACT I-Scene I- I hate Obama” segment?
        NUTROOTS=EPIC FAIL.

  4. 12 Me4obama
    June 20, 2011 at 8:03 pm

    Which of these stories will you be talking about tomorrow, includes, Obama impersonator.

  5. 13 Me4obama
    June 20, 2011 at 8:11 pm

    His set looks beautiful, and he has PBO picture in the background. . Michael Moore is critizing PBO stance on Libya but they seem to be civil in their Tone. Still cool to watch. His opening was so powerful and with so much energy makes you want to watch. Holding my breath.

  6. 14 LOL
    June 20, 2011 at 8:13 pm

    I guess this was one of those “not intended to be a factual statement ” statements

  7. 15 Doris
    June 20, 2011 at 8:15 pm

    Larry started off with the Dan Choi rant, GIANT YUCK! Axe reiterated the President’s positions on same sex marriage and equality. He named with policy initiatives that the President has approved for gays and lesbians. He also said that the President is doing everything he can for this community.

  8. 16 Me4obama
    June 20, 2011 at 8:16 pm

    Michael More defended PBO and said they should not compare PBO with Bush. He went to Libya to save lives says Michael Moore and Bush lied to the nation. wasn’t a bad segment. Still holding my breath.

    • 17 Doris
      June 20, 2011 at 8:19 pm

      That wasn’t too bad, :)

    • 18 hopefruit2
      June 20, 2011 at 8:31 pm

      Hmmmm…I predicted that the tone would start out seemingly neutral and then over the weeks, shift ever so slightly until outright Obama bashing is the norm by this time next year. Looks like the tone is even more positive than I predicted it would be.

      If I turn out to be completely wrong, I will be HAPPY to say so, because I am hoping that I will be proven wrong. There’s nothing more that I would appreciate than a true progressive TV presence independent of MSNBC, and other corporate entities.

      • 19 lisalovesobama
        June 20, 2011 at 8:45 pm

        I completely agree with you Hope. I was just about to post that same comment to Me4. I was gonna say: ” Nope, that’s how he tricks you. He starts off all nice and slow and moderate, then he builds up steam and bashes you over the head repeatedly with his insane PL talking points like it’s a blunt force object.” Best of luck to his viewers, I wouldn’t wish that kind of trauma on my worst enemies…….. okay, I’m lying, I’d send the Repugs to that fool with bells and whistles on. :lol:

        • 20 Doris
          June 20, 2011 at 8:51 pm

          Lisa, you need to stop, LOL. Can’t stop laughing. Oh Lawd, LOLLLLLL!

          • 21 theo67
            June 20, 2011 at 10:42 pm

            I’ve already passed out from not breathing after reading Lisa tonight. Lying on the floor now waiting for 911 to get here… ;)

            I am very nervous about where Olbermann is going to take this over the coming weeks. I’ll stay away until I get more evidence.

        • 22 Chi
          June 21, 2011 at 5:18 am

          Spot on Lisa…

          Having Markos on his first show tells you exactly where Keith will be taking his 25 viewers…

          And I with my ultimate premium cable subscription and all will still certainly be missing that excursion…

          And this from someone who single-handedly turned tons of people including total strangers onto Keith…

          For those of you who choose to watch, take care and be ready for the very same sort of manic swings a la Chris Matthews, Lawrence O’Donnell and little Rachel…

          These people have no core and are prone to bouts of deranged Obama bashing which comes from a place of resentment and condescension at the black man who just won’t do as he’s been instructed…

          How dare President Obama overlook their superior assessments and positions regarding every national issue…

          They are all after all intellectually superior to the man in the White House…their pigmentation guarantees that of course…

    • 23 Chi
      June 21, 2011 at 5:22 am

      The very same Micahael Moore who accused President Obama of invading Libya for the oil…

      That same Michael Moore…

      Too funny…

  9. 24 Doris
    June 20, 2011 at 8:19 pm

    Me4, the NUTROOTS polls were discussed. Some video of negative comments from the conference against the President. Larry also showed how the President’s approval has dropped 15% in three years with this groups. Axe said that those numbers were not bad and had probably gone up since Nov. 2010. They also discussed the three Republican frontrunners, i.e., Romney, Pawlenty and Huntsman. Got to rewind my video to give you the rest.

    • 25 hopefruit2
      June 20, 2011 at 8:27 pm

      This so-called “drop” in approval is misleading, for it fails to account for the fact that there are many Obama supporters who have declined to attend the NUTROOTS in the last couple years because of the nasty tone it has taken on. That alone will make it seem like there is a drop when it simply reflects a shift in the types of people attending the convention.

      • 26 Doris
        June 20, 2011 at 8:29 pm

        Yep, hadn’t thought of that. The tone has greatly changed at Orange. But, that’s just me. I think I did read over there that a lot of them would not be attending.

    • 27 Me4obama
      June 20, 2011 at 8:29 pm

      Well I think Lawrence is loosing his freakin Mind. He Lost me on Friday and I guess he won’t change, at least i have an alternative.You can see the diifernce in Keith’s tone and he said he is going to be the voice of the people not coperations. He is taking on Fox news for editing Jon Stewart’s interview. And Markos will explain why he hasn’t been on TV for a year.

      • 28 Doris
        June 20, 2011 at 8:30 pm

        Okay, gonna switch channels. :D

      • 30 Chi
        June 21, 2011 at 5:04 am

        Sorry Me4Obama, but having that self-serving, self-aggrandizing Markos does not exactly elicit any faith in Keith or a sense of a change for the better in his agenda…

        Markos is an incredibly unimpressive loser and to pretend that this man who’s all in it for just the money and any semblance of power or clout he can leverage or claim, has anyting to offer is so bogus on every level…

        Show me any host’s version of ‘upwardly mobile’, ‘credible’ cache of guests and I’ll tell you immediately what the host is really all about…

  10. June 20, 2011 at 8:20 pm

    Just in: the president will have a major speech on Afghanistan on Wednesday!

    Let’s hope the plan is clear and concise and hope it will drawdown moe than 10k troops!

    • 32 askew3
      June 20, 2011 at 10:36 pm

      I hope you are right. I feel like we are due for a big good news announcement from Obama. I am hoping that he is committing to withdrawing all troops by the end of 2011, so we can start 2012 with no troops in Afghanistan or Iraq.

  11. 33 Me4obama
    June 20, 2011 at 8:24 pm

    Keith is going to take on clarence Thomas and his link to the walmart ruling of the supreme court. And later he is going to take on Rick Perry and the Bushes plus the Obama impersonator. No Obama bashing by Keith so far and he is very respectiful when he says something he doesn’t agree with him. Am seeing all the Old faces from his previous show. Still holding my breath.

    • June 20, 2011 at 8:28 pm

      The al gore effect? Let’s hope!

    • 35 lisalovesobama
      June 20, 2011 at 8:52 pm

      I’d take Lawry any day over Olbertool who is mercurial, arrogant, narcissistic and just plain insane- any day, Me4. But because i really care about you and I don’t want you to be disappointed, I’ll cross my fingers- I’m not holding my breath, I can only make it 20 seconds if that ;)

  12. 36 desraye
    June 20, 2011 at 8:24 pm

    I almost scream when Larry said that the nutroots had influence. I knew this was a lie. Most dems don’t know what nutroots is. I know was thinking to hisself that these peopele are not the base.

  13. June 20, 2011 at 8:26 pm

    Looks like LO will be playing for the nutroots crowd! KO looks like al gore has tempered him, so far!!! Ironic development!

  14. 40 dotster
    June 20, 2011 at 8:35 pm

    Next up on LO—–Meaghan McCain. Why, pray tell.

    • 42 Me4obama
      June 20, 2011 at 8:42 pm

      Why Megan Mccain. Glad am not watching but am enjoying your updates.

      • 43 theo67
        June 20, 2011 at 10:50 pm

        Indeed – these MSNBC regulars (Michael Steele, Megan McCain) and then the former Republicans like Ed Schultz, Cenk and Chris Matthews – I’m not sure what we are supposed to get from them. It would be one thing if their views were critically explored and discussed, but instead, the MSNBC hosts who host them just treat them like credible superstars. It makes my stomach hurt watching the sweetness with which they are handled on these shows. First of all, Megan McCain may be an interesting personality, but what has she ever accomplished or done as a political “expert”? And isn’t she the one who rudely stated that she wanted to “kick the President’s butt” in the next election? She’s just a socialite. As for Michael Steele – he’s the worst sort of person. Failed in his career, used and abused by Republicans and ultimately and humiliating still grovelling for the same Republican party who threw him out on his ear.

        Again – thanks to all for watching this crap and reporting back. Looks like we’re not missing much.

        • 44 Chi
          June 21, 2011 at 4:51 am

          Megan McCain does not even rate as a ‘socialite’ Theo…

          She’s just a dumb airhead who has been hired by dubious types as a mouthpiece for some phony version of 2011 republicanism that ultimately still peddles in manipulation, exploitation, hate and petty vindictiveness…

          She’s a simpleton… an insecure wannabe with absolutely nothing to offer or add to the conversation…

          And try as Rachel maddow and her ilk may in their attempt to elevate this failed, shallow offspring of a very petty, vindictive failure and poor excuse for a man and human being; Megan McCain remains just like her father: a pathetic , hollow, bitter, vacuous, petty, failure of an empty shell who will never amount to anything…

          Never…

  15. 45 Me4obama
    June 20, 2011 at 8:40 pm

    If Keith keeps up with this and doesn’t change MSNBC is caput. I guess someone at the whitehouse is monitoring. He just took on Politico for being a right wing money making machine dressed up as a news organization :lol: Now that guy from Gopolitico Ken Vogel is on defending POLiTOCO

    • 46 Doris
      June 20, 2011 at 8:44 pm

      Okay, I like it Me4, only because you gave him good ratings. I must admit though, not bad, not bad at all. Oh, I hope he doesn’t go back to his old ways. Fingers-crossed! :D

  16. 47 Me4obama
    June 20, 2011 at 8:46 pm

    PBO is for Marriage Equality but am Okey with him staying in the closet until he is reelected. I know his heart is in the right place so chill the F**k out Lawrence.

    • 48 lisalovesobama
      June 20, 2011 at 8:58 pm

      Amen, Amen, Amen, Amen, Amen Me4!!!!!!!!!!!!! Why Lawry tried to get Axe to out PBO is a mystery to me. Everybody but Nutroots and psycho Choi KNOWS PBO believes in marriage equality! We are all in on it Lawry. You didn’t need to point out that you know that he knows that you know that PBO is a rainbow, card carrying lover of gays and lesbians, everybody been known he loves and supports the gays and lesbians :roll: :roll:

  17. 49 Me4obama
    June 20, 2011 at 8:53 pm

    Worst persons is on and Sarah Palin’s trading marking her name as an Education Expert landed her No. 1, that woman is an idiot says Keith, No. 2 is fox news for editing Jon Stewart’s interview on Fox. Glad the worst person in the world is back on.

  18. 50 Doris
    June 20, 2011 at 8:54 pm

    Going to Dunkin Donuts, see you later!

    • 51 lisalovesobama
      June 20, 2011 at 9:06 pm

      You go girl. I’m a Krispy Kreme kind of girl. I’ve been craving them like crazy but I’ve been too lazy to take three buses to get to the Krispy Kreme shop. Dammit! Did Florida sign a deal with Dunkin Donuts? I can count on one hand the number of KKs there are within my zip code: 3. When I lived in Jacksonville and Gainsville, there was only one KK within the vicinity of where I lived. Damned shame. I love those darned donuts. Yum, Soft chewy, glazed disks of deliciousness, especially when they’ve just been made, all hot and juicy. Yum, Yum. Okay, I’m going to bed early tonight so I’ll be able to wake up at 6 to get to KK. Hmmmmm

    • 52 hopefruit2
      June 20, 2011 at 9:12 pm

      Now that summer is here, I’m trying to watch it. No Krispy Kremes for me. Although if there were a bag in front of me, I would devour the whole darn thing. Sigh…I wish I had PBO’s metabolism.

      • 53 lisalovesobama
        June 20, 2011 at 9:40 pm

        I know how you feel Hope. I’m supposed to be on a diet, but, I have cravings rarely, so when they come along, I just go with it.

  19. 54 Me4obama
    June 20, 2011 at 9:08 pm

    Okey am out I hope I gave you a good count down to Keith’s debut. I Tuned out when I listened to Markos calling My president by his name Obama, Barack Obama not by his Title of President Obama. I guess it’s too much for Markos to respect the President. Good night family.

  20. 55 StR
    June 20, 2011 at 9:59 pm

    I don’t have the stomach for Olbermann, but reports here give me some hope. In trying to build up a brand, he can’t just appeal to the fringe nuts, but needs to cast a wider net. Given that Olbermann walked away from a $20M a year contract, you have to assume he has an ownership stake with Current TV – meaning the wider the audience the better.

    Lawrence always has a strategy – I think he knows that President Obama taking some heat from the left is a good thing politically for him as the centrists/moderates will see it as “Hell the far left is pissed at him, so he must be pretty moderate”. Lawrence picks his spots, and I could see him on the DOMA issue because he knows that Obama will be moving on it in short order.

  21. 56 Cindy Sweatt
    June 21, 2011 at 12:57 am

    President Obama belongs to the United Church of Christ.. We are very much an open and affirming faith. http://vimeo.com/25323489 I hope this link works.


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