SurveyUSA: By 5:1, NJ Voters Say Governor Christie Should Not Run for President in 2012 …. he has a Minus 18 job approval today as speculation continues about whether Christie should run for President. 38% of NJ adults approve of the job Christie is doing, 56% disapprove.
* Obama carried NJ in 2008 by 15 points. Obama’s approval rating in NJ today is Plus 14 (54% approve, 40% disapprove).
* Voters split evenly on whether Christie would be better president than George W. Bush.
Christie has cut state spending on education. In those Jersey homes where a school teacher lives:
* Christie’s job approval is Minus 30 (33% approve, 63% disapprove).
* 6:1 say Christie should not run for president.
* 5:2 say Christie would be a worse president than Obama.
In union households:
* Christie’s job approval is Minus 36 (31% approve, 67% disapprove).
* Obama’s job approval is Plus 15 (55% approve, 40% disapprove).
* 8:1 say Christie should not run for president.
* Among Independents, Obama’s job approval is Plus 7, Christie’s is Minus 11.
* Among Moderates, Obama’s job approval is Plus 28, Christie is Minus 23.
* Among lower-income voters, Christie is Minus 32. Among upper income voters Christie is Minus 5.
Eric Boehlert, 2010 (a senior fellow with Media Matters, a progressive research center): “I don’t think there are Republican polling firms that get as good a result as Rasmussen does. Their data looks like it all comes out of the RNC [Republican National Committee].”
Nate Silver concluded that Rasmussen’s polls were the least accurate of the major pollsters in 2010, having an average error of 5.8 points and a pro-Republican bias of 3.9 points according to Silver’s model. He singled out as an example the Hawaii Senate Race, which Rasmussen showed the incumbent 13 points ahead, where he in actuality won by 53 – a difference of 40 points, or “the largest error ever recorded in a general election in FiveThirtyEight’s database, which includes all polls conducted since 1998.”