‘it’s all over’

Raw Story: American University professor Allan Lichtman is on a winning streak spanning nearly three decades …. Lichtman created a formula that has correctly predicted the winner of each election since 1984, beginning with the reelection of President Ronald Reagan. The formula that predicted Obama’s 2008 win is again showing that the incumbent president will win the election, despite the term-low approval rating Obama has been maintaining for past weeks.

“Even if I am being conservative, I don’t see how Obama can lose,” Lichtman said.

His model … relies on 13 “keys” that gauge the performance of the sitting president’s party. If six or more of these aspects are in the party’s favor, the candidate they present will win. Nine of the keys fall in Obama’s favor, Lichtman said – more than enough for reelection.

Created in 1981 and first tested against the 1984 election, Lichtman’s model hasn’t failed yet. Even in 1992, when President George H.W. Bush was riding a wave of popularity and widely expected to win, Lichtman thought otherwise.

35 Responses to “‘it’s all over’”

  1. August 31, 2011 at 9:18 pm

    LOL I saw this. Good thing Lawrence didn’t predict a PBO win. His track record SUCKS!

    OBAMA/BIDEN 2012

  2. 2 Marlz
    August 31, 2011 at 9:19 pm

    Thank you for posting this. . . did not get a chance to watch!

  3. August 31, 2011 at 9:21 pm

    WH announced Pres Obama willl accept Speaker Boehner invitation to address Congress on September 8th.

    • 4 StR
      August 31, 2011 at 9:29 pm

      I said this would be the result, because ultimately it’s not a big issue. This issue will be the time and going up against the NFL Season Opener juggernaut. Game starts at 9pm, so I assume the address will be at 8pm. I guess Pres. Obama will be up against Kid Rock and Lady Antebellum in the pre-game extravaganza. This also means NBC won’t show the address of course.

    • 5 Desraye
      August 31, 2011 at 9:39 pm

      I don’t think this is a done deal. I mean NBC don’t won’t the NFL kick-off to be interrupted, NBC may not even show the president speech.Also, why would the president propose this date if he wasn’t going to go through with it?

      • 6 StR
        August 31, 2011 at 9:45 pm

        Because GOP are children. Pres Obama can’t really talk about working together on jobs bill if he was battling over Wednesday vs Thursday. GOP House and Senate Caucus were going to block the joint session and make a big mess out of it. Even if Pres. Obama won, he would have lost because he was fighting over something rather ridiculous.

    • August 31, 2011 at 9:40 pm

      LOL Get ready for a MASACRE; like Baltimore. Either way, PBO will deliver next week on his jobs initiative address. The GOP WILL NOT /CANNOT WIN THE JOBS NARRATIVE.

    • 8 P
      August 31, 2011 at 9:47 pm

      I really don’t get it at all…..I’m totally fedup….I’m out!

  4. 10 lamh34
    August 31, 2011 at 9:23 pm

    ChuckTodd reporting that WH has accepted SoH Boehner’s invitation to speak “Thursday” before joint session of Congress.

    Cue the “Obama caves…agains” post all over the twittervers and blogosphere.

    I’m done, I’m going to freakin’ bed…early.

    • 11 EDP4BHO
      August 31, 2011 at 9:30 pm

      Me too lamh34. Let the noise begin. And as for the professor’s keys, the one not included and never before considered is “race”. Done !

      • August 31, 2011 at 9:57 pm

        I wish people would understand that this President is not into playing games when so many people are suffering. His main goal is to do what he can to help put people back to work. If we who claim to support him can’t see that, then I don’t know what to say. The people out there are so dam tired of Washington so call leaders playing politics while they are suffering. If we are sick of Boehner and the T-Republicans, then we know what we need to do, get out to vote in 2012 and give this President some people in Congress and Senate who want to work for the middle class and poor. Instead of complaining everytime you turn around, stop attacking the President and go after the real enemy. The T-Republicans. We need to get out to vote and get rid of people like Canter, Boehner, and all of them.

        • 13 EDP4BHO
          September 1, 2011 at 8:25 pm

          No worry Anniebelle, I’m still in and I’m sure we all are. Just get a little tired, and not always knowing what our clever President is up to, makes one weary. I have to say, President Obama drives me batty in a nice way because he always has these plans that we know of after the agony 😀

    • 14 collegekay
      August 31, 2011 at 9:30 pm


      and that is why I barely tweet these days

    • August 31, 2011 at 9:34 pm

      How about this for cognative dissonance from the left – They pitch a fit that Boehner is disrespecting the President, and when Pres. Obama moves the date they launch into attacks about how Obama is spineless/gutless/nutless etc.

      • August 31, 2011 at 10:06 pm

        To Obama it’s all about jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs. Remember what Obama said on his trip to the Midwest, it’s okay if they say Obama care, because he do care. He care about the middle class and the poor, the ones who are suffering through this economy. And when people want to call him names, he don’t care because he know who and what he is. I’m still with you Mr. President. Sept. 8th I wii be right there watching you.

        • August 31, 2011 at 10:29 pm

          All the people from the Left who want to call this President spineless, gutless, ought to remember that if everyone had come out to vote in 2010, there would be no Speaker Boehner. So when the left sit back calling this President names, I want them to remember that there were alot of Democrats who didn’t show up to vote in 2010, there were alot of Independents who went to the GOP side in 2010, so in my opinion the spineless ones, the gutless ones are the ones who kept their asses home in 2010 and allow theire to be a speak Boehner. The left ought to be tired of John Boehner, weither you agree with this President on everything this was a flat out show of disrespect to this Black President, and it ought to make the left ready to fight to get rid of John Boehner and the others. But instead they rather call Obama names. It seem to me the left have no more respect for this Black President than those racists crazy ass right wingers.

    • 18 Obama Grandmama
      August 31, 2011 at 9:47 pm

      This could have simply been a scheduling problem on both sides and not a big political one upmanship. Too bad everything is taken as having a supposed partisan reason for everything.
      Is Rachel Maddow’s big war documentary scheduled for next Thursday?

      • 19 57andFemale
        August 31, 2011 at 11:27 pm

        It was not a serious issue until Rush Limbaugh made it an issue earlier today. Rush Limbaugh literally said that the Republican party was more important than Obama and that Boehner needed to put Obama in his place.

        No, this is not a big issue. It is, however, not a win for us. The story will be, starting Wednesday night and now with a bigger audience for the Republican debate because of this, what jabs and ridicule the Republican ‘candidates’ get in against Obama on this issue. We are going to hear for a week how “weak” he is and how he caved. It started already.

        What distresses me is that it will take the focus off the jobs program and the MSM lemings will follow the best dig they can find against Obama.

        Some recent polls that dig deeper into questions and attitudes have found that people from virtually the entire political spectrum want to see Obama ‘stand up’ in a conventional manner that they can relate to. We can say that it doesn’t matter, that it doesn’t reflect Obama’s governing style — we can say all of that. It DOES matter that we help people fashion a positive, visceral response. Obama accepting a Republican tactic of sheer disrespect and thuggery is not helpful.

        If I hear Jay Carney explain tomorrow that it is the Speaker’s role to “invite” the President, and go down another process explanation, frankly I’m going to scream.

    • August 31, 2011 at 9:54 pm

      Lord Jesus have mercy on your people, It sometimes feel like we’re fighting a losing battle against the perpertrators, and the enemy. Have mercy on us all Lord God.

  5. August 31, 2011 at 9:25 pm

    It’s not over per se because there is 17 months yet where a couple of the categories could flip against the President. We don’t know if there will be a third party challenger, and domestic social unrest, military/fp failure, major administration scandal could happen over the next 17 months. Not saying they will by any stretch, but they are categories still “in play” right up to the election day.

    • 22 EDP4BHO
      August 31, 2011 at 9:36 pm

      Geez, StR, you sure know how to keep us buoyed. And do not get offended by me as you tend to do- we can atleast try to get along. My remark is part snark, by the way !

      • August 31, 2011 at 9:48 pm

        I’m just pointing out that you can’t use the Lichtman Formula now is all. Look at the 13 areas yourself and tell me you can. If the election was tomorrow I would agree with Mr. Lichtman’s hypothesis based on his formula – not that I particularly agree with his formula because it was created before the media was so damn pathetic and citizens united money.

    • 25 Keith in C-bus, Ohio
      August 31, 2011 at 9:48 pm

      Yeah, I don’t know why CHIPS keeps posting this. Maybe its to keep us in good spirits. Bless her heart. But with this much EVIL and OPPOSITION to PBO its going to take a monumental effort to re-elect him. BTW we are way less than 17 months away from the election. We are only 14 months away. 😉

    • 26 gcwp1
      August 31, 2011 at 9:49 pm

      Mr Consistency 🙂

    • 27 Obama Grandmama
      August 31, 2011 at 9:52 pm

      When I heard of an AP investigation on the Iraq and Afghanistan war fraud expenditures and waste of money coming out today I wondered exactly when the fraud was perpetrated as the report told of the huge amount of money involved but did not tell when it occured or break it down for the ten years of study. I thought maybe the report was designed to seem to blame it on PBO’s watch.

    • 28 Betsy
      August 31, 2011 at 10:00 pm

      A third party challenger? Are you serious? You think ANY Dem is stupid enough to run against the Prez? What scandal do you envision that Obama would be a part of? I don’t get it.

  6. 29 Me4obama
    August 31, 2011 at 9:25 pm

    Well, who the hell cares if they say he caved. He will give the speech and people will tune in.

  7. 30 Me4obama
    August 31, 2011 at 9:32 pm

    I want the President to always remain above the bull, and the media can all go to hell.

  8. 31 utaustinliberal
    August 31, 2011 at 9:38 pm

    Thank you John Boehner for once again reminding us why we have to do everything within our power to kick you and your cronies out of power. It’s all good that it ended up like this. People will still tune in to listen to President Obama speak and this only adds to the list of things that democrats, OFA, the American public, and President Obama can tuck away for 2012 to show that he has always been the only adult in the room.

  9. August 31, 2011 at 9:39 pm

    The issue is not about caving, I wish people would understand, it’s about JOBS. People are suffering and do you think President Obama care if certain people will say he caved. He want to try to do what he can to put people back to work. This President cares about the people who are out there suffering. And I plan to be right there watching him Sept. 8th. To hell with those idiots on MSNBC Sept. 7th. The President showed that it was not about upstaging the Republicans, if it was he would have continue this thing.

  10. August 31, 2011 at 9:43 pm

    Nancy Pelosi — Speaker of the House 2012. Mark it.

  11. 35 nintendowii10
    August 31, 2011 at 9:47 pm

    Well fuck the feckless emoprogs who will whine about President Obama “caving.”

    How can they say they are team players when they threw in the towel six months into his Presidency?

    President Obama is practicing what he campaigned on, being above the tone in Washington. He’s not going to allow politics to keep his jobs initiative from being heard, and hosting it on football kickoff night only plays in his favor. More people will be tuned in and listen to what he has to say.

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