The Obama Diary

****

Jeffrey Sparshott: Economists React to the May Jobs Report: ‘Unambiguously Positive’

U.S. employers added 280,000 jobs in May, the unemployment rate rose to 5.5% from April’s 5.4% as more Americans joined the workforce, and wages firmed. With the labor market showing signs of strength, all eyes are now on the Federal Reserve, which has pinned interest rates near zero since December 2008. Here’s what economists had to say. “Any doubts about lingering economic weakness in the second quarter, at least as it relates to the labor market, were certainly erased with the release of the May employment report….In addition to the stronger-than-expected headline figure, revisions to prior months were positive 32,000 but perhaps most importantly, the average hourly earnings number increased by 0.3%. As a result, the year-over-year change in earnings is now 2.3%, the highest level since it briefly ticked there in August 2013.”–Dan Greenhaus, chief strategist at BTIG

“Even if one holds a long-term capped growth/secular stagnation view as we do, there can be and indeed are some unambiguously positive economic data in the meantime. Today’s payroll release was certainly one of them.” –Guy LeBas, managing director for fixed income strategy at Janney Montgomery Scott “This 280,000 rise in May payroll jobs, combined with a 32,000 upward revisions to job growth in March and April, reinforces our view that the decline in real GDP in the first quarter was an aberration due mostly to temporary factors and statistical problems acknowledged by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis]….I expect real GDP growth to rebound to at least 3.0% per annum in the middle two quarters of this year on strength in consumer spending, residential and nonresidential (including public) construction and less drag from private energy investment and net exports.” –Stu Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial Services “We see this as a very strong report, and it provides strong affirmation that underlying strength in the economy is building as the recovery moves back on track

More here

****

Total jobs created during this recovery: Full-time: 8,657,000 Part-time: 47,000 (Time to retire the "they're all part-time" talking point.)

—
Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) June 05, 2025

Economists react to the May jobs report: 'Unambiguously positive' on.wsj.com/1ARPeRU via @WSJecon

—
David Wessel (@davidmwessel) June 05, 2025

****

Hospital giant HCA says OCare grew EBITDA profits by $500 million. Health employment up 100,000 ppl. GOP still says Ocare is terrible. Sigh.

—
Kurt Eichenwald (@kurteichenwald) June 05, 2025

It's looking increasingly likely that the economy will be in a sweet spot, humming along near full employment on November 8, 2016.

—
Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) June 05, 2025

****

Household survey shows employment growth of 272k, which is darn similar to the 280k from payrolls. Whichever way you look at it, good news.

—
Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) June 05, 2025

IT'S A RECORD: The US economy has recorded 63 straight months of private sector jobs growth. Previous record was 51 months from 1996-2000.

—
Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) June 05, 2025