The Obama Diary

National Journal: …In the latest Allstate/National Journal Heartland Monitor poll 49 percent of those polled said they approved of President Obama’s performance as president, and 44 percent disapproved. … that approval rating is the highest the poll has recorded for him since September 2009.

And beneath the top-line number were some other encouraging signs for the president. In particular, independents who said they approved of his performance (47 percent) exceeded those who said they disapproved (43 percent); that is the first time more independents approved than disapproved of Obama’s performance in a Heartland survey since September 2009.

Another positive trend for the White House is worth watching: The fire of intense opposition to Obama seems to be cooling. In last August’s survey, 39 percent of those polled said they strongly disapproved of his job performance …. that number declined to 30 percent in the latest survey.

Full article here

PPP: Our Presidential numbers in Ohio provide further evidence that the state has swung back toward the Democrats since the November election. Barack Obama now has narrowly positive approval numbers in the state at 47% giving him good marks to 46% who are unhappy with the job he’s doing. And he leads his top prospective Republican opponents for next year by margins ranging from 6 to 16 points.

This is the first time in six PPP surveys of Ohio since June 2009 that Obama’s had more voters approving of him than disapproving.

The key to his improved standing is that the base has rallied around him. Where only 71% of Democrats expressed approval of him on that poll, 84% of Democrats do now. The first couple years of the Obama administration featured a lot of Democrats fighting with each other - now that they’ve sort of unified around a common enemy in the form of John Kasich it seems to be leading to a more united party up and down the line.

…Obama leads all of the top Republicans in the state by margins greater than his 4 point win over John McCain in 2008. Mitt Romney is the most competitive, trailing Obama by 6 points at 46-40. After him it’s Mike Huckabee trailing by 7 at 48-41, Newt Gingrich down 12 at 50-38, and Sarah Palin at a 16 point advantage, 52-36 … our national poll yesterday also found Gingrich with worse favorability numbers than Palin, it’s kind of hard to imagine his last couple of weeks could have been much more of a disaster.

….Ohio joins Virginia and Colorado as states PPP has polled since the beginning of February that George W. Bush won in both 2000 and 2004 where Obama now leads all of his prospective opponents for next year by at least 6 points. There’s no way Republicans can win the White House back if that continues to be the case.

Full article here