The Obama Diary

MSNBC: Whether it’s due to the current Medicare debate, the end of the health-care fight (in which the GOP clubbed Democrats on Medicare), or something else, Republicans are losing ground with seniors.

In our combined NBC/WSJ polls for the first half of this year, 44% of seniors identify themselves as Democrats, versus 35% who identify themselves as Republicans. So a nine-point spread.

But in our merged NBC/WSJ polls from 2010, Democrats held just a two-point edge among seniors, 42%-40%.

Why is this important? Because last year - when they won control of the House and made gains in the Senate - … the GOP won the senior vote by more than 20 percentage points, 59%-38%. But in 2008, McCain beat Obama among seniors by eight points, 53%-45%. And in 2006, Democrats split the senior vote, 49%-49%.

…. Something similar is happening in the Midwest, too. Per the merged 2011 NBC/WSJ polls, 42% of respondents in that region identify with Democrats, versus 31% who identify with Republicans. So an 11-point spread. Yet back in our 2010 merged data, the Dem edge was just four points, 41%-37%….