Reuters: U.S. private employers added far more jobs than expected in June, bouncing back from a surprise slump the month before, a report by payrolls processor ADP showed on Thursday.
The private sector added 157,000 jobs last month, exceeding expectations for a gain of 68,000, according to a Reuters survey of economists.
…. U.S. stock index futures added to gains following the report, while the dollar gained more ground against the yen.
Friday’s jobs report is expected to show a modest rise in overall nonfarm payrolls of 90,000 for last month and a gain in private payrolls of 110,000….
On Wednesday, a stable employment reading from the Institute for Supply Management’s service sector survey suggested employment growth later in the year….. More here
Bloomberg: U.S. stock-index futures extended gains after an industry report showed companies added more jobs than forecast in June, bolstering confidence in the economic recovery…. More here
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Bloomberg: U.S. initial jobless claims fell for the first time in three weeks, a sign the labor market is making a little headway.
Jobless claims fell by 14,000 to 418,000 in the week ended July 2, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The median forecast of economists in a Bloomberg News survey called for a drop to 420,000. The number of people on unemployment benefit rolls and those getting extended payments also declined.
First Lady Michelle Obama participates in the “Pit Crew Challenge” station during an event with the President’s Council on Fitness, Sports and Nutrition on the South Lawn of the White House, May 9, 2011. The First Lady visited seven activity stations during the event, which helped promote both the Let’s Move! and Joining Forces initiatives. (Official White House Photo by Chuck Kennedy)
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MediaLife: “60 Minutes” landed a big scoop with President Barack Obama’s first interview after the killing of Osama bin Laden, and it delivered a big audience.
“Minutes” averaged 13.8 million total viewers at 7 p.m. last night, according to Nielsen overnights, up 29 percent over the 10.7 million who tuned in last week.
The interview was easily Sunday night’s most-watched show on broadcast, with the No. 2 program, ABC’s “Desperate Housewives,” drawing about 4 million fewer viewers.
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There have been endlessly frustrating problems with the OFA site since I started ‘The Obama Diary’ fundraising effort for Obama/Biden 2012 yesterday, lots of you have had trouble with the link - I’ve contacted OFA to let them know about the problems, but the automated reply said it could be a “few weeks” before they get back to me. Insane - people want to donate to the campaign and they can’t!
Any way, thank you so much to those who persevered and helped bring the total up to $830 today, just $170 short of the target. If any of you could manage $10 or more to bring it to $1,000 that would be great, but absolutely no worries if you’re not in a position to donate - as I said before, these are really difficult times for many of you.
This in the link - I hope it works!
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President Obama made this statement to mark the 63rd anniversary (according to the Jewish calendar) of the founding of the state of Israel:
“Sixty-three years ago, when Israel declared its independence, the dream of a state for the Jewish people in their historic homeland was finally realized. On that same day, the United States became the first country in the world to recognize the State of Israel.
As Israelis celebrate their hard-won independence, it gives me great pleasure to extend the best wishes of the American people to the people of Israel and to honor their remarkable achievements over the past six decades. Our two nations share a unique and unbreakable bond of friendship that is anchored in common interests and shared values, and the United States’ unwavering commitment to Israel’s security.
I have every confidence that the strong relationship between our countries will grow deeper with each passing year. This is a period of profound change in the Middle East and North Africa, as people across the region courageously pursue the path of dignity and self-governance. Just as I know that Israel will always be one of our closest allies, I believe that the region can be more peaceful and prosperous when its people are able to fulfill their legitimate aspirations.
We will continue our efforts with Israel and others in the region to achieve a comprehensive peace, including a two-state solution, and to working together toward a future of peace, security and dignity for the people of Israel and all the people of the region. I offer my best wishes to President Peres, Prime Minister Netanyahu, and the people of Israel as they celebrate their 63rd Independence Day. “
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Classless:
GOPolitico: Rick Perry has declined the White House’s request that he greet President Obama when Air Force One lands in Texas on Tuesday, the Republican governor’s office says.
“We did try to arrange something with the White House,” said Lucy Nashed, a spokeswoman for Perry. “They asked us if we wanted to meet him out on the tarmac in El Paso, but we weren’t able to work anything out, based on the fact that it’s probably going to be a 10-minute greeting.”
Think Progress: This morning, Fox News hosted Rep. Allen West to talk about the budget cuts that the Tea Party wants. In order to frame the discussion as supporting West’s position, which is anti-compromise, the right-wing network cited a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll that it claimed showed that most Americans do not want the Republicans to compromise. Host Martha MacCallum claimed the poll showed that “56 percent of Americans say that [Republicans] should stick to their positions.” Watch it:
The problem with the poll that Fox cited is that it doesn’t say anything like what they claim it does. In fact, it appears that they actually switched the numbers around. The poll in question does find that 56 percent of respondents do not want to see the GOP compromise, but the question was directed to self-identified Republicans — meaning that Fox essentially took the number for Republicans and claimed that it represented all Americans:
But hey, it’s hardly the first time Fox reversed poll results to fit its agenda - here
Bloomberg: Fewer Americans filed first-time claims for unemployment insurance payments for a third week in the last four, indicating progress in the labor market.
Applications for jobless benefits decreased 16,000 in the period ended March 12 to 385,000 …. the four-week average of claims dropped to the lowest level since July 2008
Fewer firings along with increased hiring and a lower unemployment rate may help lift household spending, which accounts for 70 percent of the economy. Federal Reserve policy makers this week said the expansion is getting stronger and the labor market is “improving gradually.”
“As demand has picked up, and the labor component of the economy has been relatively tight, businesses are now seeking to add more to their employment ranks,” said Russell Price, a senior economist at Ameriprise Financial Inc
President Obama arrives back at the White House after a trip to Florida March 4
Washington Post: The missing piece of the U.S. economic recovery - job creation - is finally falling into place.
Employers added 192,000 jobs in February and the unemployment rate edged down to 8.9 percent from 9 percent, marking the third straight month of decline.
The jobs report was the most promising since the recession began more than three years ago and the most solid evidence yet that the recovery is gaining momentum.
….economists and executives see the new data as confirmation of an underlying trend that had been visible anecdotally and in various other surveys: Private employers are gaining confidence and beginning to hire.
…The unemployment rate has now declined nearly a full percentage point since November, the steepest drop over a three-month span since 1983.
Many analysts had viewed the rapid decline in the unemployment rate in December and January as too good to be true, expecting the February number to inch back up to 9.1 percent.
…hiring in the private sector was strong and broad-based. Private employers added 222,000 jobs … Every major sector of private industry except retail added positions….
Since late last year, the monthly reports had provided a muddied picture of the U.S. economy. But the quicker pace of job gains reported Friday now matches other encouraging measures of growth, such as surveys of businesses and weekly reports on unemployment insurance benefits.
“It’s a very fair representation of where the economy is,” said John Silvia, chief economist at Wells Fargo.
Full article here
NYT: “Economic recoveries can be like a snowball rolling down a hill, in that it takes time to get some momentum,” said John Ryding, chief economist at RDQ Economics. “People hesitate until they feel that the recovery’s durable enough, and then they have a tendency to jump in. Maybe we’re finally getting to that jumping-in moment.”
….Threats to a more robust recovery remain, of course, including a surge in energy and food prices, …. but for now, the improvement is notable….
Economists say the unemployment rate could rise temporarily in the next few months, as stronger job growth lures some discouraged workers to look for jobs again…….federal employees may also be at risk of significant layoffs if Republican leaders in Congress are successful with their proposed budget cuts. Economists at Goldman Sachs and elsewhere have warned that such budget cuts could ripple through the economy and lead to layoffs in the private sector.
CBS: Sarah Palin has turned to Facebook and Twitter to criticize President Obama’s 2012 budget proposal. Here’s what she wrote on Twitter: “Here’s how minuscule the White House’s $775 million a year cuts are: less than 1/10 of 1% of this year’s budget deficit.”
And on Facebook: “If you want to know how minuscule their proposed $775 million-a-year budget ‘cuts’ really are, please look at this chart. The proposed cuts are so insignificant - less than 1/10 of 1% of this year’s $1.65 trillion budget deficit - that they are essentially invisible on the pie chart. That speaks volumes about today’s budget.”
Palin links in both places to a chart posted on The Blaze, Glenn Beck’s website, five days ago - before the budget proposal came out. It uses an op-ed by White House Budget Director Jacob Lew to suggest that Mr. Obama was proposing to cut $775 million from the budget, and goes on to mock that amount as insignificant.
The problem? Lew wrote in his op-ed that he was only discussing “a small fraction of the scores of cuts” in the budget proposal, not the total proposed cuts … the proposed cuts, in total, add up to about $75 billion … the simple fact is that Palin using an incorrect figure as the basis of her critique.
Marketwatch: New applications for regular state unemployment-insurance benefits moved below the closely watched level of 400,000 claims this week, cheering economists who say the data signal a strengthening employment environment. Initial claims for benefits fell 36,000 to a seasonally adjusted 383,000 in the week ended Feb. 5, the lowest level since July 2008, according to the Labor Department.
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Slowly but surely …. check those unemployment figures when Bush left office.
WH: Today’s employment report shows that the unemployment rate fell sharply to 9.0 percent and private sector payrolls increased by 50,000 in January. Revisions to private sector payroll data show that 1.1 million jobs were added during 2010, the strongest private sector job growth since 2006. The 0.8 percentage point decline in the unemployment rate over the past two months is a welcome development; however, the rate remains unacceptably high.
More here
Reuters: Despite the conflicting signals in the Labor Department’s report on Friday, economists agreed a recovery in the labor market was proceeding apace if not gaining speed. Many investors also saw the data as a sign of strength …. a household survey, which is used to determine the jobless rate, showed nearly 600,000 more people reported they were employed.
That surge in employment pushed the unemployment rate to 9 percent from 9.4 percent in December. The rate has dropped 0.8 percentage point since November, the biggest two-month decline since 1958.
…Data on manufacturing and retail sales has suggested the economy’s strong momentum continued into the new year. Economists said January’s employment report, excluding the weather effect, was consistent with the economy growing above 3 percent.
“We see significant potential strength in this report and will be looking to see whether the drop in the unemployment rate persists,” said Michael Gapen, an economist a Barclays Capital in New York. “If it does, then it will be a further signal that underlying job growth is stronger than reported and conditions in labor markets are better than advertised by the establishment survey.”
Last month’s drop in the unemployment rate was encouraging because it reflected more people finding work, even after adjustments for updated population controls.
…well, apart from the 42 million Americans who watched it last night (figures just released). Thirty-one million watched the President’s Tucson speech.
Bloomberg: The number of workers filing first-time claims for unemployment insurance payments fell last week in the U.S., showing the labor market continues to improve.
Applications for jobless benefits decreased to 421,000, less than the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, from a revised 438,000 the prior week, Labor Department figures showed today. The four-week moving average, a less-volatile measure, dropped to the lowest level in more than two years.
Companies are holding on to more workers as sales improve and expectations for growth brighten… “The labor market is moving in the right direction, slowly but surely,” said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody’s Analytics. “Things look a little better than they first appeared, but we’re still not creating enough jobs to lower the unemployment rate.”
The number of people continuing to collect jobless benefits fell by 191,000 in the week ended Nov. 27 to 4.09 million. They were forecast to fall to 4.24 million.
The unemployment rate among people eligible for benefits, which tends to track the jobless rate, dropped to 3.2 percent in the week ended Nov. 27, the lowest in two years, today’s report showed.
Time: The employment numbers for November were far lower than people were hoping for. But here’s the problem: The employment picture might not be as disappointing as the number the Department of Labor reported. Why’s that? The Labor Department failed to count just over 350,000 jobs in its final tally. Include those jobs into the mix, and….
…..the economy actually added nearly 400,000 jobs in the month of November……
…..In reality, the retail sector added just over 300,000 new hires in the month of November. But the Labor Department didn’t count those hires. That’s because the Labor Department’s final number of employment is seasonally adjusted. And since the retail sector disproportionately adds more workers this time of the year than the other 10 months, the Labor Department adjusts down the sector’s employment numbers in November and December. So retail employment gets over counted in January and February when hiring is slow, and undercounted in November and December….
The result: In the Labor Department’s final count, 350,000 retail jobs got excluded.
And that may make sense. Many of those jobs are seasonal and temporary. But if the retail sector continues to do well this holiday season, some stores may keep a good number of those employees. If so, November’s disappointing job report might be just be setting the economy up for a surprisingly strong employment number for January.
Disappointing news on the unemployment rate: The economy added 39,000 jobs in November, but the rate is up to 9.8 percent
WH: Today’s employment report shows that private sector payrolls increased by 50,000 in November, lower than expectations, but continuing eleven consecutive months of private sector job growth. The pace was not enough to prevent the unemployment rate from climbing to 9.8 percent.
While the overall trend of economic data over the past two months has been encouraging, today’s numbers underscore the importance of extending expiring tax cuts for the middle class and unemployment insurance for those Americans who have lost their jobs. Failure to do this would jeopardize hundreds of thousands of additional jobs, and leave millions of Americans, who are out of work through no fault of their own, on their own.
In addition to the increase in November, the estimates of private sector job growth for September (now 112,000) and October (now 160,000) were revised up. Since last December, the economy has added 1.2 million private sector jobs. So far this quarter, including today’s revisions, private sector employers have added an average of 105,000 jobs per month.
Overall payroll employment rose by 39,000 last month … an unemployment rate of 9.8 percent is unacceptably high and we need to achieve robust employment growth in order to recover from the deep job losses that began over two years ago. Although the overall trajectory of the economy has improved dramatically over the past year, there will surely continue to be bumps in the road ahead such as this. The monthly employment and unemployment numbers are volatile and employment estimates are subject to substantial revision. Therefore, as the Administration always stresses, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report.
It is essential that we take the additional targeted actions that the President has recommended to increase growth and job creation, such as extending tax cuts for the middle class, investing in our infrastructure, providing tax incentives to encourage businesses to invest and hire here at home, and promoting exports abroad.
The positive news (look away Leftbaggers):
Reuters: Fresh signs the U.S. economy has broken out of its summer soft patch emerged on Thursday as data showed a gauge of jobless benefits hit a new two-year low last week and pending home sales unexpectedly rose in October.
The picture also brightened as retailers recorded their best sales gains in four years in November….the reports were the latest to suggest a pick-up in activity in the fourth quarter.
“There seems to be no doubt that the economy is improving and likely to continue to improve,” said Mark Vitner, a senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities in North Carolina.
Initial claims for state unemployment aid increased 26,000 but a four-week moving average - a better gauge of underlying labor trends - fell to its lowest level since the week ending Aug 2, 2008.
Politico: Wednesday’s unemployment data showing that applications for jobless benefits fell to their lowest level since July 2008, giving hope to a more solid economic recovery.
Bloomberg reports: Jobless claims declined by 34,000 to 407,000 in the week ended Nov. 20, Labor Department figures showed today. The total number of people receiving unemployment insurance decreased to the lowest in two years, and those on extended payments also fell. …
“The labor market is clearly improving,” said John Silvia, chief economist at Wells Fargo Securities in North Carolina. “We’re seeing consistent job gains in the private sector. This suggests we’ll have a good holiday spending season.”
Reuters adds: The improving economic picture was also brightened by news that consumer sentiment perked up this month to its highest level since June…
“The economic recovery in the U.S. is becoming more sustainable, as the improvement in the labor market is finally supporting consumer spending,’ said Harm Bandholz, chief U.S. economist at UniCredit Research in New York.”
Gallup: Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, declined to 9.2% during the first half of November — down from 9.4% during the last half of October and 10.0% in mid-October — and one of the lowest levels of the year.
The decline in the unemployment rate along with the slight drop in the percentage of part-time workers wanting full-time work combined to bring underemployment down to 17.7% — its lowest level of 2010. This is an improvement from the 18.6% underemployment of mid-October and mid-September, and is the second consecutive new low.
Gallup’s economic data suggest that the job market continued to improve during the first half of November. As noted previously, if current Gallup unemployment trends continue, the government’s unemployment rate for November is likely to show a decline when reported in early December.
WH: Today’s employment report shows that private sector payrolls increased by 159,000 in October, continuing ten consecutive months of private sector job growth. While job growth was substantially higher than in past months and higher than analysts expected, the pace was not enough to reduce the overall unemployment rate, which remained at 9.6%.
In addition to the increase in October, the estimates of private sector job growth for August and September were revised up by a total of 93,000. Since last December, private sector employment has risen by 1.1 million. Over the last quarter, including today’s revisions, private sector employers added an average of 122,000 jobs per month.
Overall payroll employment rose by 151,000 last month.
… economists pleasantly surprised by Friday’s report that the economy added 151,000 jobs in October, calling the growth a sign that the economy is picking up.
“This was hugely surprising. It’s strong across the board,” Fabian Eliasson, vice president of currency sales at Mizuho Corporate Bank in New York, told Reuters.
John Canally, economist at LPL Financial in Boston, said the new jobs weren’t enough to change the unemployment rate but are “certainly a good kick-start.”
Echoing President Barack Obama, Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS Inc. in Lexington, Mass., told Bloomberg that the report is “very optimistic news.” She added, “It looks like the last month or so, things have started to move upward again, and the momentum is hopefully building.”
Bloomberg: Claims for jobless benefits unexpectedly dropped last week to a three-month low, a sign the U.S. labor market may be starting to mend.
Initial jobless claims decreased by 21,000 to 434,000 in the week ended Oct. 23, the lowest since early July when fewer auto plants than normal closed for retooling, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. Thetotal number of people receiving unemployment insurance dropped to a two-year low, while those getting extended payments also fell.
Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy, is beginning to stir and may give employers reason to add workers ahead of the holiday shopping season. Fewer firings are an initial step toward more hiring as companies such as Ford Motor Co. see sales improve.
“Certainly these are encouraging numbers,” said Brian Jones, senior economist at Societe Generale SA in New York…….
…….Economists forecast claims would increase to 455,000
WSJ: In a good sign for the job market, the number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits unexpectedly fell last week to their lowest level since July 10.
Initial unemployment claims dropped by 11,000 to 445,000 in the week ended Oct. 2, the Labor Department said in its weekly report Thursday. New claims for the previous week, ended Sept. 25, were revised upward slightly to 456,000 from 453,000.
Economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires had predicted new claims would rise by 2,000.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – New claims for unemployment benefits plunged by 16,000 last week to 453,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday, a steeper fall than had been anticipated in a sign that labor markets may be strengthening modestly.
Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast that claims would come in at 460,000. The government revised the prior week’s figure up to 469,000 claims.
The four-week moving average of claims, considered a better measure of underlying labor market trends, fell 6,250 to 458,000, its lowest level since July 24.
(It’s funny, this news hasn’t appeared yet on politico.com - when new jobless claims last rose it was their headline story…instantly. Update: ah, they finally mentioned the news, four hours after it appeared on the Time site. But it’s not the headline, it’s just linked in their sidebar. They must think it’s bad news
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