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Today (All Times Eastern)
10:0: The President delivers remarks and participates in Session One of the U.S.-Africa Leaders Summit at the State Department: Investing in Africa’s Future.
12:30: Participates in Session Two: Peace and Regional Stability
2:30: Participates in Session Three: Governing the Next Generation
5:0: Holds a press conference, State Department
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10:0: First Lady Michelle Obama, in partnership with former First Lady Laura Bush and the Bush Institute, will host a day-long spouses symposium at the Kennedy Center focused on the impact of investments in education, health, and public-private partnerships.
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Jonathan Cohn: Obamacare’s Impact On The Uninsured, State By State: Where Officials Wanted It To Work, It Did
Need another reminder of why Obamacare’s impact depends heavily on the state where you live? Gallup has one for you. On Tuesday, the organization published a state-by-state breakdown of how the law has affected the rate of uninsurance, at least according to its polling. Arkansas seemed to make the most progress: In that state, by Gallup’s reckoning, the ranks of the uninsured fell by 10.1 percentage points. Next was Kentucky, at 8.5 percentage points. The states that made the most headway covering the uninsured,
according to Gallup, are states in which officials decided to build their own insurance marketplaces and to make all low-income people eligible for Medicaid, as the Affordable Care Act originally envisioned. The Medicaid expansion is obviously the big factor here, because it meant many more people (into the millions, in the largest states) became eligible for government-subsidized insurance. But it’s safe to assume that the states that undertook both steps were also the ones that put the most thought and effort into promoting the program.
More here
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Michelle Jamrisko: Services In U.S. Expand At Fastest Pace Since 2005
Service industries such as builders and retailers grew in July at the fastest pace since December 2005, signaling the U.S. economy was hitting its stride entering the second half of 2014. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index increased to 58.7, exceeding the highest estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists, from the prior month’s 56, the Tempe, Arizona-based group’s report showed today. Readings greater than 50 indicate expansion. The median estimate in the Bloomberg survey called for 56.5.
Prospects for the world’s largest economy are improving as the group’s orders index reached an almost nine-year high, reflecting broad-based gains. Combined with another report showing factory bookings are also jumping, the pickup in demand raises the odds the job market will extend its recent progress. “We’re seeing numbers that we haven’t seen since well before the financial crisis and recession, and they seem to be more sustained,” said Terry Sheehan, an economist at Stone & McCarthy Research Associates in Princeton, New Jersey, whose ISM index projection of 57 was among the highest in the Bloomberg survey. The strengthening is “pretty much across the board for business activity, new orders and employment.”
More here
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Shobhana Chandra: Trade Gap Shrinks To Five-Month Low As U.S. Imports Drop
The trade deficit in the U.S. unexpectedly narrowed in June, reflecting the biggest drop in imports in a year as the economy moved closer to energy independence. The gap shrank 7 percent to $41.5 billion, the smallest since January, from May’s $44.7 billion, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of 66 economists called for a deficit of $44.8 billion. The drop in purchases of foreign goods included declines in autos and cellular phones, while petroleum imports were the lowest in more than three years.
Demand for goods made overseas will probably rebound in coming months, helped by growing household spending and business investment. Exports were little changed at a record, a sign markets overseas will represent less growth for American factories as Europe’s economy struggles to pick up and geopolitical tensions mount. “Imports are going to bounce back because of the strength of the U.S. consumer,” said Jay Bryson, global economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in Charlotte, North Carolina. “The U.S. is doing better than most advanced countries.”
More here
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Roberto A. Ferdman: Why Immigrants Are The Best Thing That Happened To Medicare
America’s growing immigrant population might not be all that bad for the country’s health-care system. In fact, it’s probably playing an important role in helping to keep it afloat. U.S. immigrants’ net contribution to Medicare’s Hospital Insurance Trust Fund, the program’s core funding source, was $183 billion between 1996 and 2011. US-born Americans? Negative $69 billion, according to a new report by the Partnership for the New American Economy, an immigration advocacy group. That means that immigrants have been pumping a lot more money in than they take out, while the rest of the population has been doing just the opposite. On a per person basis, immigrants contributed $62 more per person to the trust fund than the U.S.-born, and claim $172 less in benefits.
By the institute’s estimates, the cash contributed by immigrants over the 16-year span was more than a mere inconsequential boost. “Our analysis indicates that non-citizen immigrants, a group that includes both authorized and unauthorized immigrants, played a particularly large role subsidizing the care of the U.S.-born population,” the report says. The net $183 billion contribution was enough to ensure the prolonged buoyancy of Medicare trust fund, which according to the most recent projection will remain solvent through 2030.
More here
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@HardRCarr ugh I know what you mean, I get really uncomfortable whenever I see a white man walk into a movie theater or elementary school
— Ashishpal Singh (@YungAshuSingh) August 5, 2014
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Caroline Kennedy, new U.S. ambassador, attended memorial service in Hiroshima today–Obama first to send envoy. http://t.co/QcfwDLq2Ke
— Greg Mitchell (@GregMitch) August 6, 2014
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On This Day
President Obama carries a cake into the Oval Office for a birthday party for Phil Schiliro, assistant to the president for legislative affairs, on Aug. 6, 2009 (Photo by Pete Souza)
President Obama speaks at a campaign rally for gubernatorial candidate Creigh Deeds in Tyson’s Corner Va., on Aug. 6, 2009 (Photo by Pete Souza)
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President Obama is briefed on the tragedy in Afghanistan by Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, Adm. Mike Mullen, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, National Security Advisor Tom Donilon, Chief of Staff Bill Daley, and national security staff, at Camp David, Aug. 6, 2011 (Photo by Pete Souza)
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GM All!
Morning, and well done, Allison!
Thanks, VC!!
Good Morning, Champion! 😀
Morning, NerdyW!
President Obama will be speaking soon.
Thanks a gazillion Nerdy, and sorry for the muck-up over posting, another ridiculous WP glitch that posts a post when the draft was created, not when you click publish🙄
Devil spawn = WP.
Thanks, Chips.
It truly is!!! Thanks again Nerdy, for your patience and hard work!!
James Carville nails it:
http://thehill.com/opinion/james-carville/214414-james-carville-are-we-facing-a-gop-takeover-in-2014
Since I am much of a fan of Carville, I almost didn’t click. Glad that I did. He hits the big question when looking at how experts are predicting a GOP win in November.
The favorable differential is reflected in self-described party ID. Remember, pollsters said long ago not to pay as much attention to how a voter is registered as how a voter identifies him or herself. According to the ABC/Washington Post poll, 32 percent of Americans identify themselves as Democrats versus only 22 percent who claim to be Republicans. Other polls, including from Democracy Corps, have shown similar gaps in both party image and self-described political identification. I do not doubt that Wasserman and Silver have arrived at their consensus out of anything other than a high degree of professionalism. I just wonder why they are placing such a large bet on a party that so few people like and even less want to identify with.
Read more: http://thehill.com/opinion/james-carville/214414-james-carville-are-we-facing-a-gop-takeover-in-2014#ixzz39cd07YlE
Follow us: @thehill on Twitter | TheHill on Facebook
Carville’s opinion is worthless to me. A RW Corporate tool pretending to be a democrat.
Generally I agree with you. I left out a word above. It was supposed to read am not much of a fan. However, this article was pretty much spot on and supports what a lot of us have been saying.
Isn’t nate a poll aggregator and not a pollster ? When you have a series of crappy polls with suspect poll participants and gop oriented poll questions, his prediction is bound to be inaccurate at this point. The question is whether he relies on reliable & unbiased pollsters (of which I don’t see any) or all the crappy pollsters out there.
Little Nate refuses to consider the reliability of the pollster when aggregating his polling data. Spandan called him out on this back in 2012, when he repeatedly used some very questionable pollsters’ data with the justification that the “reliable” polls will balance out the “unreliable” ones. No, Nate, the unreliable polls are equally weighted and will drag down the overall models as to bias them – usually in the GOP’s favor. Of course, Little Nate knows this but he thinks that most people are stupid – or at least less smart than him. Then within a week or two of the actual elections, he quickly adjusts his models to reflect reality (by dropping the bogus polling data)…and then people give him all praise, honor and glory for being such a magical predictor of the elections…
Yup, I remember him pulling that last minute stunt in 2102. Sam Wang and Drew Linzer were more steady since they ignored the ‘noise’.
Sam Wang has an article unveiling Silver’s nonsense. Wang says Senate is 50/50 toss-up.
Sam Wang is the go-to guy. He does actual analysis, not just adding up numbers.
I don’t know about him thinking people are stupid. Nate got it right it 2012. It’s just Sam Wang got it more right.
I think he’s wrong about 2014 but we’ll see.
“I don’t know about him thinking people are stupid. Nate got it right it 2012”
I think you missed my point entirely — but anyway.
Nate was on Bill Maher’s panel a few weeks ago and nobody looked at him and he was virtually silent.
Nate Silver has been unmasked as the tool he has become and was ignored entirely in a venue that in 2012 was kissing his feet.
Nate, ABC News employee, (Laura Ingraham’s new home) is done.
Yup..yup.
First Lady is speaking now.
I’m listening to FLOTUS.
FLOTUS is on live C-Span tv right now with a panel which includes Kokie Roberts and others.
Here you go COS:
Thx Chips.
I’m writing another strongly worded letter to the White House COS, how dare they have POTUS and FLOTUS clashing!🙂
Agree Chipsticks. How dare they? 🙂
Impeach!!!!😆
I am switching back and forth. Why in the world would they schedule this at the same time?🙂
Okay, PBO finished for now, but that was dizzying. Sheesh!!
Nerdy, this is an incredibly important chart that won’t get enough eyeballs. I hope it’s retweeted a millions times.
POTUS is speaking now.
Let me check out POTUS speaking.
I’m going back and forth POTUS and FLOTUS.
Wait…I thought Laura Bush was speaking…are there two different streams?
Okay nevermind…got it.🙂
Well that’s interesting. One of the most reactionary Republicans on my face book feed (a young man with a crummy job he hates and massive student debt – go figure) just liked Ed Schultz. O.o
Morning!! http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/poll-obamacare-subsidies-halbig
A new poll has found that a substantial majority of respondents believe that Obamacare’s subsidies should be available to everyone, regardless of whether they purchase coverage on a state or federal insurance exchange.
The Morning Consult poll, first reported by the Washington Post on Tuesday, found that 58 percent of registered voters said that all exchanges — federal and state — should offer the law’s financial assistance. That puts them at odds with the law’s latest legal challengers, who argue Obamacare prohibits subsidies on federal exchanges.
morning DF. An honest poll, evidently, unlike most we see.
Morning, Vicki:) Oh, who knows! Polls are polls, but people DO vote with their pocketbooks so it makes sense.
Dudette, I thought of you when I saw this!
WATCH: Surreal Time-Lapse Video of California Parks at Night
Images of star trails set off by giant sequoia trees and craggy cliffs were shot over two nights in June during the summer solstice. Bonus: out-of-this-world views of the Milky Way and meteorites.
https://www.yahoo.com/travel/watch-time-lapse-video-showcases-california-night-93817089552.html
🙂 I always crack up when someone spots a geeky, nerdy thing and they think: “DUUUUUDETTE!!!”
Just watched UN chief Ban Ki-moon speaking about I/P. Not impressed at all, both style and substance.
Former President Bush is speaking now. I appreciate what he and his wife are doing for the people in Africa..
Wang
Silver has done something common among paid writers, which is to do what it takes to attract eyeballs. He has rounded a probability that is barely over 50% to make the statement that one side is ahead.
This problem is endemic to journalism. Nuance with probabilities is just lost on most people. But writers are just trying to appeal to their readers. The real headline is “WE DON’T KNOW” but somehow that is not what gets the lead. Really, he’s caved in to all of you!
Basically, whenever you see a probability like that, you should mentally say “plus or minus 20%” just to get the right idea. Of course, if the probability gets above 80% that doesn’t make sense any more. At that point, it’s OK to say that one side is ahead.
http://election.princeton.edu/2014/08/04/why-youre-wrong-to-get-excited-about-60/#more-10570
Exactly…Little Nate thinks people are stupid. He plays the game of “boost GOP morale; demoralize Dems” and covers his arse at the same time. When it gets closer to the actual election, he adjusts his models and then says aha…I predicted right!
He has learned the corporate game of journalistic malpractice…
PBO is not a war criminal. What an idiot
She’s mocking the emoprogs who call him that. She’s not saying he is.
Here’s a good reason I don’t listen to the news (except when I’m in my car) – it does nothing for my blood pressure. I went on the road for about 20 minutes and was both infuriated and ’embarrassed’, though all the while thinking how TOD villagers would react to both. Yessiree, ‘My name is VC and I’m a TOD addict!’
1. There’s this daily programme called ‘Q’ (which I suppose is popular), and there was a promo for a surveillance debate between Michael Hayden and ” ” journalist ” “…… guess who? Fortunately for my pressure, I was back at home before the “journalist” aired his teaser.🙄
2. This one is for Zizi. I heard that Ghana beat Canada in the first game for the U-20 FIFA Women’s World Cup tournament. I hadn’t heard anything about a tournament.
Hayden is a fav of odious GG. In fact I think GG’s bulk of “work” for $250 million of @Pierre’s money has been interviews with Hayden or himself, LOL.
Oh! The little bit of the teaser I heard gave me the impressions Hayden was on the pro-surveillance for ‘safety’ side.
Yes, GG was the “journalist” mentioned. I didn’t hear his part of the teaser though I was quite ticked that he was being given a forum in my air space.
For those unfamiliar with the relationship of African countries to the rest of the world, here’s an informative article:
U.S. moves to cash in on African economic promise
From the article:
– $14 billion in American private investment in Africa for construction, clean energy, banking and information technology
– Federal and industry commitments now total about $33 billion
“It reminds me of China when I first went there in 2001,” [Robert] Blackwell [Chicago-based Electronic Knowledge Interchange CEO] said, conceding that it’s far from risk-free. “But I think it’s a huge opportunity.”
snip /
Africa’s middle class is budding, and it is entering a so-called demographic sweet spot in which better health and declining fertility rates — which allows more women to have jobs — are boosting Africa’s working-age population, said Margaret McMillan, a Tufts University economics professor who specializes in Africa… “It’s just amazing,” she said of the capital of Rwanda, a nation once torn by ethnic conflict. “The city is clean. They don’t allow plastic bags.”
snip /
American exports of goods to Africa totaled about $35 billion last year, largely machinery, vehicles and wheat. That was up from $28 billion in 2010. But it was still a fraction of total U.S. shipments of $1.6 trillion worldwide.
And on the renewable energy front:
Still, for individual American companies, the potential is huge, particularly for those in the energy business. About 70% of sub-Saharan Africans live without access to electricity, and more African nations, including Nigeria, recently have moved to open up opportunities to the private sector.
snip /
SolarReserve, a Santa Monica CA-based company founded in 2008 is considering bidding for a “thermal energy plant using molten salt technology, similar to a solar power facility that the company is developing in Crescent Dunes, Nev.”
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
The Chicago CEO says that opportunities in Africa remind him of China thirteen years ago (2001).
Exciting opportunities for everyone, especially because African countries can leapfrog into the 21st century without having to replace outmoded technology (e.g., land line phones, etc.).
2012
Drew Linzer
vs
Nate Silver
Yeah I think Sam Wang’s was about the same as Drew’s. Nate seems to have had some extreme fluctuations around the home stretch.
Nate’s models fluctuated with the MSM’s “Mittmentum” and “Romney surging” and “First Debate” memes,,,so of course he had to drastically bring them back to reality close to the election to avoid losing his reputation as a credible poll aggregator. He had already lost that reputation for me.
That’s too bad because he had it right. It’s funny because even the FOX poll of the time over I guess about a six month period had PBO out in front with no fluctuation all the way up to election day.
Good Morning TOD!
EXTREMELY WELL SAID DONNA..”CHRISTIANS OF CONVENIENCE WHILE DEMONIZING MINORITIES”….I’M GOING TO HOLD ONTO THAT ONE…SO MANY OF THEM HAVE NO IDEA WHO JESUS IS AND HOW DEEP HIS HEART FLOWS WITH COMPASSION…WELL SAID.
It’s freaky to me how she always gets things right:)
http://immasmartypants.blogspot.com/2014/08/the-personal-is-political.html
In the mean time. I have new neighbors that bought a house next to mine. Everyone’s house is locked up around here in the summer because we all have our air conditioners cranked 24/7…and I can STILL her their yappy dog barking…and it HAS BEEN BARKING, steadily, for the last hour!! W T F !!! I HATE barking dogs…my dog never barked unless someone came to the door…as she should have. How do you NOT hear your dog barking and bring it in? First of all…let’s think of the dog’s wellbeing..it’s flipping too hot outside to leave your dog out…AZ in the summer is an oven. I don’t care how much water you leave outside…Tell you what, I have to tutor, then stop by school, then I might just have to go over and introduce myself and lay out the why’s and where for’s….I saw a Michigan license plate…”Figures!!” says the OSU Buckeye:) So…would I be out of line??
No, you would not be out of line. We all know you would be diplomatic…….yes, even to the Wolverine. 🙂. That is dangerous for the dog and certainly not a good start with their new neighbors.
I would also say that the poor dog needs extra TLC, not only for the reasons you mentioned, but if they brought the dog with them from Michigan, it is in a new environment and is barking because it is scared.
No df – for the safety of the animal – you have every right to introduce yourself and speak up on behalf of the pooch. Also there are Noise laws that maybe the new neighbor should be made aware of.
We know you will be tactful.
Agree with you, DF, here for moral support.
It’s animal cruelty to leave a pet outside in 110F weather — if the dog starts digging a hole, he’s just trying to escape the heat, poor thing.
Dogs don’t have sweat glands, please shelter your pet! (to your neighbor)
Thanks to all of you…🙂 I will go bring some buckeyes over ( kidding!) and introduce myself….no, I’ll bring a fruit basket or cookies or something…mention all of that to them…thanks!
12:05 The President participates in a family photo with leaders
Good West Coast morning NW, Chipsticks & TOD family.
Cameroon’s First Lady sure does have a LOT of hair.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/reliable-source/wp/2014/08/04/the-first-lady-of-cameroon-and-her-hair-have-touched-down-in-d-c/
Moooooooorning GGail!! Oh heavens, imagine trying to comb that every day?🙂
Not me! I ain’t no lion! That mane would have to goooooo!!!!!😀
😆 She wouldn’t want to go through my calamity: lose her hairbrush. (BTW, I still haven’t found the original).
? I got a 404 error — might be my computer, though.😦
sorry arapaho – I ain’t no help with internet issues🙂
Yikes, that’s weird Arapaho, is it still not working for you?
Good Morning Family!
Some art for your morning enjoyment! Bobfr will like this one!
Mooooooooooorning Dudette!!!!
😆 Thank you Duuuuuuuuuudette!!
Pete Souza would be impressed🙂
🙂
Wow, Dr Jill looks AMAZING!
Yes she looks stunning. What a gorgeous dress, and gorgeous couple!🙂
The dress is SO beautiful Hopefruit, and the people in the photo are kinda lovely too🙂
Indeed. And VP Biden is glowing with pride.🙂
Wow. She looks gorgeous. The beauty of African wax print fabrics are that they are so versatile. Another clothing style with such versatility are saris.
It’s absolutely stunning Nerdy, I want it soooooo much!!
THERE IS NOTHING BETTER OR MORE BOUNTIFUL IN COLOR THAN CLOTHING DESIGNED AND MADE IN AFRICA…I BUY THIS CLOTHING WHENEVER I CAN FIND IT…DR. BIDEN IS GORGEOUS AND THE BIDENS ARE SUCH A BEAUTIFUL COUPLE.
It’s simply gorgeous Sue, nowhere on earth produces as much design beauty as this than Africa.
Beautiful photo of the Bidens—-and cool story about the gorgeous dress. Love it. Perfect for her.
When we have our TOD party one day Dotster, bet all us ladies will turn up in that dress🙂 The boys, of course, will just wear jeans and tees🙄
Yes, I love the back story to how this dress came to be. And it is purrrfect for Dr. Jill🙂
Isn’t she lovely…..yeah, yeah, yeah!
Dear God. No wonder America is stupid.
OMG. I saw the map and before reading the tweet, I screamed out “THAT’S NOT NIGERIA. THAT’S NIGER! NIGERIA IS BELOW!!!”
*Facepalm…CNN…facepalm.*
😆 I expect that kind of stooooopdity from Fox, so well done CNN – just as stoopid!
Their latest Fox hire probably did that….Allison Camarota.
Ha, probably Linda!
Oh! how embarrassing!
Good grief, for crying out loud.
Chips I no longer seem to see where you used to have the TOD archives by year/month..where we could go back and see the posts from say two years ago at this time. I only see a calendar for this year. Did you by any chance remove the archives? 🙂
Oh Hopefruit, thank you for the reminder!! There was a monster WP glitch with the dropdown menu a few weeks back and they said they were working on it, will check now to see if it was fixed.
Ahh…good to know – thanks Chips. I missed my archives so! 🙂
It’s working! It’s back! Thank yoooooou Hopefruit!!!
FANTASTIC! [[[[Chips]]]]]]
Hopef, you really are my administrative assistant! I was looking for those very year/month TOD archives yesterday when I was searching for the first picture of /whisper/ dannyo! Of course, I gave up after about 35 minutes of trying to access July 2013 and going from post to post, etc. Good luck with your more rational approach! 😀
And voila – Chips has fixed it for us!🙂
I don’t know why I never thought of using your method! [😉 1 reason was that I was trying to come at the info without dannyo being aware, but gave up after my search failed.] You are well-deserving of your role as administrative assistant! TY
🙂🙂🙂🙂
😆 You poor thing!!! The searchy function is bad enough on the site without having to go through 97,362 posts to find something!!
Now you tell me! I seem to have a penchant for finding the most difficult approach to a problem. /smh/
You know I didn’t really think seriously that you had changed things around ( I mean why would you?🙄 ). I kinda thought I must have myself forgotten how to access the year/month thingy, so I tried several different combinations, getting all kind of responses. My last resort was to try the day-to-day, post-to-post approach, until I got fed up. /shaking my fist at you in retrospect/
You are an amazing Upbeat person, VC. ❤ your ways of doing things. You can't believe how many times you in particular has cracked me up. Amk, Chips, Dudette, etc in that order.
TY, Nena (though I’m not sure you should encourage my near-irrepressible spirit).
Love her. 1911. 103 yrs. Heavens are in stitches, right about now….since 1989.
LL’s new post:
https://theobamadiary.com/2014/08/06/annals-in-missing-the-point/
Sheesh.
Just took a look at the nbc poll linked to earlier.
Have never seen such a skewed introduction by an outlet other than Fox News, Breitbart, etc. in my life.
Don’t bother clicking if you haven’t already.
Most of the article is spent trying to convince the reader that the Great Recession is what will motivate voters. Newsflash, NBC, that happened 6 years ago — we’re in recovery summer. Agree absolutely that the majority of middle class Americans were adversely affected by that disaster — but it’s now a historical fact, not something that people are gnashing their teeth about, unlike in Nov 2008.
Then they have the unmitigated gall to say “With the midterm elections less than three months away, the NBC/WSJ poll finds 44 percent of voters preferring a GOP-controlled Congress, and 43 percent preferring a Democratic-controlled one.”
Uh, NBC, have you never heard of + or – margin of error? Don’t have to delve into the crosstabs to know that this is GOP/Koch/MSM manufactured propaganda. Beyond unprofessional.